In the game of season-long fantasy football, there are a number of different routes one can take in the quest for value… whatever route you pursue, though, everyone doing their fantasy research in July and August has the same goal, it seems: find that ultimate sleeper value play that no one else will uncover. On that note, our writers and an assembled crew of some of the sharpest fantasy minds from around the internet are kicking off our quest to find the NFL’s ultimate sleeper this year, and we need your help. Read our posts on 16 solid value plays, and make vote each week to help crown a winner.
[FSLR’s Ultimate Sleeper Bracket]
With a limited player pool and an exhaustive amount of coverage on the subject, that isn’t likely to be the case… still, there are certainly a few players you’ll want to keep an eye out for in the later stages of your draft who could end up paying dividends.
Again, there are a lot of different routes to value but my approach always tends to be to look for a player who others are down on other than his anticipated per game fantasy production. Bad press? Good buy! 2 game suspension? You can’t win your Championship Round in September! Injury/poor production in 2014? 2015 Bounceback?! Let’s hope so.
With that in mind, here are some of my top 2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers. ADP is noted, to qualify, a player simply has to be a good bet on their average draft day cost.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota Vikings (2015 Ultimate Sleepers Bracket Entrant)
You’ll see more on Bridgewater and the other bracket entrants elsewhere, so, I’ll keep my discussion brief. That said, there are a number of reasons to like Bridgewater this year, including his solid run to close the 2015 season (1 14:9 TD:INT Ratio in his final 10 starts, after failing to pass for a TD in his first three), and an improved supporting cast. The return of Adrian Peterson will go a long way to keeping defenses honest, and should help put them in more scoring situations. Mike Wallace seems like a great fit for Norv Turner’s Air Coryell system, after a couple of years of not clicking with Ryan Tannehill on deep balls. Sprinkle in some growth from Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright, and Minnesota has the makings of a productive offense.
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens (2015 Ultimate Sleepers Bracket Entrant)
Arguably, Joe Flacco’s supporting cast is less intriguing on paper this season than it was heading into last. Steve Smith is another year older, and was quiet down the stretch last year (2 TDs and 398 yards in the second half) while Flacco’s most consistent receiving threat Torrey Smith takes 767 yards and 11 scores with him to San Francisco. That said, Breshad Perriman may be able to mimic that production in terms of yardage, and the TDs could come from elsewhere, notably with room for growth from 6’5” Marlon Brown who didn’t score last year, and was astonishingly targeted 0 times in the redzone.
The biggest boost to Flacco’s potential? The arrival of OC Marc Trestman who should convert some of Justin Forsett’s carries to catches (112 targets for Matt Forte last year) and has an inclination to pass as opposed to run in general. Flacco finished 2014 as fantasy’s 13th best signal caller, and some extra yards from the team’s backs, coupled with a few more pass attempts in general (not a major leap here, he put 554 balls in the air last year) should help push him into the top-12. He’s currently coming off the board at QB16 in the 11th round.
Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (2015 Ultimate Sleepers Bracket Entrant)
Jones was ticketed for a solid step forward in 2014, until a preseason injury turned out more serious than anyone had thought and derailed his whole season. There aren’t a great number of pass attempts to go around in Cincinnati under Hue Jackson (481 last year) and a significant number of those are slated for A.J. Green (2014: 117 in just 13 games), but Jones is fully healthy and expected to latch on to the WR2 role that was promised him a year ago. His 2013 season saw 10 TDs (buoyed by a four score performance against the Jets) and 14.0 YPR. Meanwhile, Mohamed Sanu produced 790 yards as the team’s second option a year ago. He’s not as talented, large, or sure handed as Jones (14 drops), either, so the 3rd year pro should be able to best that mark this year.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington (My personal 2015 Ultimate Sleepers Bracket Entrant)
It wasn’t necessarily shut-down corners that shut Pierre Garcon out last year (Photo: Paul Spinelli/Associated Press).
Garcon was a forgotten man in DC during Jay Gruden’s first year as Head Coach, but this offseason the team is talking like they recognize the error in their ways. Targeted under 100 times a year after making 113 receptions, Garcon could return to playing a major role this year. That catch total is likely out the window, after all it came as part of a near-impossible to reproduce string of 16 games with five receptions or more, but Garcon’s talent remains and he has a lot of room to grow on 2014’s numbers. Last year the QB play in Washington was all over the map, and while this is shaping up as a true make or break year for Robert Griffin III, the production from the position can’t get much worse, leaving organic room for the offense to grow as a whole.
With a current ADP of 127/WR48, there is a lot of room to return a profit on Garcon.
John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald enters 2015 with another year of tread on the tires, and while he still has some of the best hands in the game, he’s not much of a vertical threat at this stage. That job, then, belongs to someone else in the Arizona offense this year and Michael Floyd failed to make the role his own despite his opportunity last year. Brown showed a lot of potential in the second half last year, making 31 catches (on 69 targets) from Week 7 onward. His catch rate was dismal, though, it can be blamed on poor QB play after Palmer’s injury, in part.
Whether it comes from his own growth as a receiver, or better production from his QB, that number has a lot of room for growth this season. If Brown approaches 120 targets (102 last year) with a 60% catch rate he could reel in 65 balls, and with his 4.34 combine speed there are going to be a number of big plays in there. 1,000 yards is probably a stretch, but it’s not out of reach.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Robinson’s 548 yards through 10 games project to 877 over the course of a full season, which would have made for a solid rookie output. Among an intriguing crop of young talent in Jacksonville, Robinson was the most consistent contributor with a 63.2% catch rate. Heading into 2015, his role is clearly defined. Robinson will start on the outside, and should be viewed as the favorite to lead a Jaguars team that will continue to trail more often than not (and thus pass often) in targets.
Robinson was apparently the team’s most impressive player during OTAs and could post solid numbers if Blake Bortles is able to take a step forward in his second year.
Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (2015 Ultimate Sleepers Bracket Entrant)
While Dez Bryant’s threat to miss regular season games never felt legitimate, his unavailability for organized team activities left Williams with a lot of opportunity to work in different spots in the offense, and evidently he impressed. While his overall numbers were down last year when compared to his rookie season, 16.8 YPR (after a 16.7 debut in 2013) and eight scores show his propensity for the big play remains. Bryant’s overall target numbers should dwarf anyone else in the passing game, but, if Williams can carve out 80-100 looks as a clear cut #2, he’ll have his share of fantasy relevant weeks.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Jeremy Hill’s breakout has people forgetting about Cincinnati’s other ball carrier (Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Jeremy Hill is on the top of fantasy enthusiasts minds as it pertains to Cincinnati backs and he’s a top the depth chart out of the gate in 2015 as well. That said, there is still a role for the shifty Bernard as a regular change of pace back, and a contributor in the passing game. Bernard saw just 13.3 touches per game from Week 12, when Hill really took control of the backfield, onward last year but he can still be productive at that level of work and that number projected over the full season (213) would still rank well among other time share backs. Cincinnati will continue to pace their offense with the ground game, but because everyone’s first thought about their rushing attack is about Hill’s impressive 2014 debut, Bernard is being drafted well below where his projected workload pegs him, at an ADP of 69/RB28.
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams
The picture on Todd Gurley’s health will become clear through training camp, but at this stage it seems that the team intends to take it slow with their 2015 first round selection. Make no mistake, Mason is not long for the starting job given that investment, but, he’s a good bet to start the season as the team’s lead back, at a minimum.
Mason racked up 920 total yards on 195 touches as a rookie, and it would be a surprise if he didn’t see that many touches this year, at a minimum. Again, if it becomes clear that Gurley is going to miss time or otherwise have a limited workload through camp Mason’s price should rise, but right now with a ADP of RB35 he’s a steal.
Update: Gurley, apparently, is ready to open camp. Nevertheless, the team is still expected to take it easy on him in his debut season.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Charles Sims appeared to be overwhelmed by the pro game as a rookie, and there are no indications that the team plans to hand him the reigns to their run game this year. That leaves Martin a top the pecking order, and while there isn’t a lot to be excited about after back-to-back sub-4.0 YPC seasons he is no lock to put up big numbers, he should lead the backfield in carries and does have that impressive 2012 rookie season on his resume.
He’s slimmed down to 210 pounds this year in an effort to play quicker, and the hope is that will bring back some of his early career explosiveness in the open field.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
In many respects, I’m on Mathews as perhaps one of the best handcuff/injury upside backs in fantasy this season. DeMarco Murray is coming off an epic workload, and if he misses time Mathews will be handed the keys to a high volume Eagles offense. I’m on him, too, because he’s a great fit for Chip Kelly’s offense with a one-cut, pile-pushing style and an ability to attack the hole. Speaking of injuries, Mathews was injured and ineffective for much of 2014 but really came into his own as a Charger in 2013. Beyond that, he’ll see regular work as part of a two headed attack, with 8-10 carries a week seeming like a reasonable number. Even 150 carries behind ProFootballFocus’ best rated run blocking line from a year ago could be worth investing in, after the top backs are off the board.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
A forgotten man in Greg Roman’s offense last year, Davis made just 26 catches for a meager 9.4 average with two scores. That production really was abysmal from a player who came into the season ranked as a consensus top-6 TE after his 13 score 2013 campaign, but now the draft day cost is considerably cheaper. He’ll carry a 161/TE16 ADP, and while he’s on the latter end of his career arc, Davis still has a lot to offer. Expect his targets to rise considerably from last year’s 50 with OC Tony Sporano working him back into the game plan, and with the reality that San Francisco is likely going to trail more often than they are accustomed to, given the losses on defense.
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers
Ok, Green isn’t all that ‘sleepy’ as we’ve been dialing up the hype on him for years, but, there may be a degree of post-hype discount here given that he didn’t pan out last year and the suspension to Gates gives him an obvious opportunity to earn a role to start the season. He’s coming off the board at 13.07, which is right around where he was before the news broke on Gates.
In great likelihood, Gates will take his role back in October and should eat up most of the TE red zone targets, so, Green may not have staying value for anyhow, but, a prudent owner could draft him for the first four weeks of production and keep an eye on the snap count for the following few weeks and decide to trade, dump, or deploy him as needed, as long as the draft day price is right.
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