At the close of the 2014 NFL Season, we provided a review of each team with an eye toward the 2015 campaign. While still relevant it has become clear through free agency, and the 2015 NFL Draft that rosters are taking a different shape heading into the season.
Much more will change through the summer, into training camp, and finally Week 1 but with the draft now in the rearview we can look at each roster in detail to get a sense of what players will find themselves in better (or worse) fantasy situations heading into the season.
For earlier articles, check out our 2015 Fantasy NFL Team Preview page.
2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Dallas Cowboys
Despite the presence of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo, Dallas’ 2014 identity was all about DeMarco Murray and the Offensive Line. They’ve held onto Bryant after much debate, Romo is healthy, and the line remains intact, but Murray is long gone. The question heading into the 2015 season is can they run the ball effectively – and with that, will their offense have the required pacesetter it needs (not to mention, will they have the ability to keep their defense off the field through clock control) – with a cast of characters that is very distinctly not DeMarco Murray and 2014’s league leading rusher.
Dallas Cowboys 2015 Preview: Draft Results
- Round 3, Pick 91: Chaz Green (OT)
- Round 7, Pick 243: Laurence Gibson (OT)
- Round 7, Pick 246: Geoff Swaim (TE)
Dallas Cowboys 2015 Preview: Notable Additions
- OT La’El Collins
- RB Darren McFadden
- WR A.J. Jenkins
- RB Ryan Williams
Dallas Cowboys 2015 Preview: Notable Subtractions
Dallas Cowboys 2015 Preview: Coaching Changes
Retained HC Jason Garrett and OC Scott Linehan
Dallas Cowboys 2015 Preview: Fantasy Fallout
The 2014 Cowboys put together a 12-4 record, the first time they’d finished at better than 8-8 since 2009. They did so by limiting their exposure on defense, thanks to a chain moving, pace setting offense. Along the way, they produced the league’s best fantasy RB, it’s 4th best WR (with a combined 29 TDs between them) and top-12 finishers at QB and TE. Looking ahead to 2015, those finishes seem like fair projections yet again, given Bryant’s dominance at the receiver position, Witten’s consistency (even with Gavin Escobar in the mix) and given that Tony Romo has finished as a top-12 QB in every season since 2007 (except for his six game 2010 campaign).
And then, there is the Running Back. Writing Murray in as a ‘notable’ subtraction seems like more than a bit of an understatement. His 392 carries were more than anyone in the last eight years, and the 7th most all time. That he added 57 receptions (on 64 targets) just further adds to the legend. And yet, he walked this offseason.
And now, fantasy owners are asking the same question that GMs were in free agency (and Eagles fans are today) – how much of that was a result of the offensive line, and how much was a function of Murray? The offensive line was great, to be sure. They finished as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd best run blocking unit (and 3rd best for the pass). They’ll return the whole group in 2015, and they should be even stronger in terms of depth this year, after their signing of La’El Collins and 3rd rounder Chaz Green. And they’ll block well again this year, after leading the league in adjusted line yards last year.
If nothing else, we’ll have the answer this year. By all accounts, the test variable will be Joseph Randle, who is the projected start back heading into training camp. Randle ran well last year, with 343 yards on 51 carries behind Murray. 65 of them came on one carry, mind you, so the 6.7 YPC number he sports comes with a bit of an asterisk. He did pass the eye test on the field, though a case could be made that he was taking advantage of defenses Murray beat down. Still, at 23 and coming off a productive second year, the job is his to lose to the oft-injured veteran back Darren McFadden.
Again, Dallas’ line is an impressive unit and they certainly rank as much more impressive than that which McFadden has been running behind in Oakland throughout his career, but that won’t excuse McFadden’s 3.3, 3.3, and 3.4 YPC numbers over the last three seasons. He’s already missed time in the early stages of this offseason with a hamstring issue, and should be thought of as nothing more than a complimentary piece at this stage.
The thing is, though, the Cowboys are still expected to run the ball plenty, this year. With that in mind, McFadden is still worth a spot on your roster, be it for the reserve carries he’ll net every week, or for the opportunity to take significant carries should Randle wind up injured or prove ineffective. He’s certainly next in line. Lance Dunbar should factor in on passing downs again, but isn’t pegged for a much greater role.
That much could happen, of course. Randle came into the league with a 5th round status because he wasn’t a special talent. Many will tell you he’s just another guy. His teammates, though, will tell you that he’s ready for the job. Says veteran Jason Witten:
He’s had good workouts. I could tell he’s focused, he’s locked in. I think he sees the opportunity he has in front of him. I think he wants everybody to have that trust in him that he can be the guy.
He’ll come at a steep cost, one not justified by his 105 career carries… but, with Scott Linehan and Jason Garrett returning and Dallas presumably sticking with a formula that worked last year, the unit that ranked 3rd in the league in rush attempts should be expected to give him plenty of opportunity this season, and that is something worth chasing as long as the pecking order holds through training camp. His ADP has been on a ridiculous rise this offseason, now hovering around the top of the fourth round, but the potential reward still exists at that price… its just that the risk gets greater. The good news for investors: it seems that you won’t have to worry about a suspension.
Now that we’ve dispensed with a backfield that is due for major changes, we’re on to a passing game that is more or less status-quo, at least from a personnel standpoint. With Dez Bryant signed long term, you can go ahead and pencil him in for his standard top end receiver performance. Bryant hasn’t finished worse than WR6 in any of the last three seasons, averaging 144 targets, 91 receptions, 1312 yards and 14 scores a year during that span. He’s coming off the board as WR2 (8th overall) and ranks as the consensus WR2 among Fantasy Pros experts. The price is steep, but its probably right.
Behind him, it’ll be Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams yet again. Beasley made 37 receptions last year, including a stretch in which he averaged five targets and four receptions over the final five games, finding the endzone three times during that span. That’s it for Beasley, though. Don’t get any ideas. The fourth year, 5’8″ slot man factors in behind Bryant and 3rd year pro Terrance Williams and with the team likely to play a heavy number of two TE sets to support the run game (Jason Witten was on the field for 1071 of the teams 1082 snaps, and James Hanna and Gavin Escobar combined for an additional 600), there isn’t a ton of additional work in store for Beasley. He drew 443 snaps and 59 targets, and those numbers are nearly his ceiling.
If you’re looking for upside, then, you’ll have to set your sights on Williams. Our Neil Parker’s entrant in this year’s FSLR Ultimate Sleepers Bracket took a statistical step backward last year, though he did manage eight scores and an impressive 16.8 YPR.
If you buy the preseason hype, the (near)26-year-old receiver is ready to take a big step forward. This, per WR Coach Derek Dooley:
He’s not only taken a tremendous leadership role in the group, really setting the example of how you do things, he’s expanded his route inventory. He’s played X. He’s played Z. He’s played in the slot and every day he went out there and was the same player. Every route, every opportunity he had he took advantage of it. So he’s made a big jump this offseason.
If you buy into the 3rd year WR hype, Williams has that going for him, and there’s no knocking a guy’s big play ability when he scores eight times on just 37 receptions. His catch rate, however, leaves a lot to be desired. That’s where the biggest amount of growth should come from for Williams this season. Bryant is going to get his looks in the passing game. Again, if he draws somewhere near his average of 144 targets as anticipated, that only leaves 330 attempts from Tony Romo to be distributed throughout the rest of the pass catchers (based on 2014’s numbers, which should climb this year if the run game takes a step backward, but won’t go through the roof, by design). Sprinkle in 80 or so for the backs, and 100 for the TEs and it becomes pretty tough to find 100 looks for Williams. With a catch rate of just around 60% throughout his career, he’s going to need to show significant growth in his ability to secure balls thrown his way to offer strong fantasy production. A 65 reception, 900 yard campaign is a fair ceiling projection from Williams, with something in the 50 catch range a safer bet – certainly nothing to shake a stick at, mind you, particularly if he keeps scoring.He’s a WR4 with upside.
Those 100ish TE targets should still belong to Jason Witten, primarily. He just turned 33, and won’t beat anyone with his speed, but he offers a consistent set of hands and has played in every game since his rookie season. That, coupled with James Hanna‘s blocking, is bad news for anyone thinking Gavin Escobar is in for a breakout. Witten’s numbers were down in 2014, but, he was still the league’s 10th best fantasy TE and his 700 yards seem like a safe floor. Count on consistent contributions from him yet again.
As for Romo, he’s certainly surrounded by talent, but projecting a major increase in his pass attempts would be a mistake. The Cowboys attempted the 2nd fewest passes in the league last year, so even if they turn away from the run slightly as some are projecting, they have a long way to go to becoming a high volume passing game. They ‘Boys know what worked a year ago, and as long as they can get some production out of the Randle/McFadden backfield duo, they’ll stick with the run. With that in mind, finishing much better than last year’s 266 fantasy points (QB11) is an unwise wager. Then again, he won’t finish much worse, either.
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