Whether you really buy the 3rd year breakout, or whether you simply treat it as another tool in your belt as you approach draft day, it’s data worth knowing. After all, the pro game makes for a tough adjustment and it takes some time for it all to become natural.
This year’s 3rd year receivers are noted below, in order of their appearance in my 2015 ranks. With the ranks included, you’ll note that I’m not particularly high on most of the names in this group but that doesn’t necessarily mean there isn’t value to be had. The names outside the WR top-75 may not even be drafted in your league, but, with a few things breaking the right way and their own development they could well end up making a difference.
2015 NFL 3rd Year Wide Receivers
Already with some of the best hands in the league, DeAndre Hopkins has a chance to be the man in Houston this year (Photo: Scott Halleran/Getty Images North America).
1. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (WR13)
Hopkins finished with 1,210 yards on 76 receptions in 2014, finishing with a WR14 season. He caught 63.3% of his targets from QBs who completed 59.8% of their throws to other prospective pass catchers, and put just three balls on the ground of 79 catchable throws, posting a YPR of greater than 15 (15.9) for the second straight season.
He notched 127 targets along the way, with veteran WR Andre Johnson commanding 146 alongside him. Johnson has now departed for Indianapolis, replaced by a combination of rookie WR Jaelen Strong, Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. They won’t command a similar number of looks, leaving more work (think in the range of 150) for Hopkins. The only caveat: they won’t command the same amount of attention that Johnson did.
To make good on the added attention (a 20% increase on his 2014 target load) Hopkins will need to handle the extra defensive attention that comes with the job. For his part, he says he’s ready (per Rotoworld):
I’m in a role where I should catch more balls. … I’m going to demand the ball and make them think I’m the guy.
If he can stay near his current catch rate (and again, it won’t take a big upgrade in QB play to get there), an 85 reception season (and the commensurate WR1 production) could be in the offing.
2. Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (WR22)
Allen’s YPR number plummeted to 10.9 in 2014 after sitting at 14.7 in his rookie year. Otherwise, though, his numbers and his use in the offense were up. In just 14 games, Allen drew 121 targets from Philip Rivers and he finished the season with 77 receptions.
Evidently a lack of conditioning played a role in his declining yardage totals, and that is backed up by a drop from 6.0 yards after the catch per reception to 4.0 last year. He’s down to 206 pounds this year however, and is reportedly a new man in terms of his commitment to the game.
With Eddie Royal now departed, and taking his frustratingly high number of red zone targets with him, Allen has a chance to join Hopkins in that 85 catch ballpark. If Antonio Gates takes the anticipated step back this year (recall he’s missing the first four games, too) Allen could put that new focus, and two years of experience to use. An 85-1000-8 season could be in the offing.
3. Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings (WR40)
I noted in my Vikings preview that the signing of Mike Wallace puts a bit of a damper on Johnson’s potential entering his third year. Still, as it stands right now Johnson is set to start opposite Wallace and should see a huge increase in opportunities. If that holds, he’s set for a big-time increase in targets (59 in 12 2014 games) and with Teddy Bridgewater looking like he’s prepared to take a leap forward himself, Johnson could build on a solid year two with WR3 numbers.
4. Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (WR48)
With a 59.7% catch rate in 2014, down from a 61.1% mark in his rookie year, Williams is a candidate to start catching a higher percentage of his passes (particularly when you take Tony Romo‘s 70.3% completion percentage when throwing to other targets into account) in his third year. It’s not that drops have been a significant issue (seven across two seasons) it’s just that Williams hasn’t had the focus and route running chops to stay on the same page with his Quarterback.
By all accounts, he’s taken a step forward this offseason. Specifically, according to WR coach Derek Dooley (via ESPN):
He’s not only taken a tremendous leadership role in the group, really setting the example of how you do things, he’s expanded his route inventory… he’s made a big jump this offseason.
So, Williams who has shown a knack for big play ability (8 regular season TDs last year with three in two playoff games) seems primed for a breakout year. In great likelihood, he won’t see enough targets to be anything other than a solid bench replacement given Dallas’ continued emphasis on the ground game, and Dez Bryant set to take a significant share of the passes that Tony Romo throws. He’s posted near-matching 16.7 and 16.8 YPR numbers in his first two seasons, though, so even a small boost in receptions could pay significant dividends.
5. Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (WR57)
Catch rate isn’t intended to be an explicit focus of this post, but here it is cropping up again. Stills had a great one last year, at 78.8% which was better than all but two other receivers with more than 50 targets (former teammate Brandin Cooks and new one Jarvis Landry).
He’s therefore a perfect fit for an offense centered on high percentage passes and intermediate routes with Ryan Tannehill. Like Williams, he may require more targets than the offense can provide him (between Landry, Jordan Cameron, Greg Jennings and rookie DeVante Parker) to be truly productive, but he’s slotted in to start right now and made 63 receptions in New Orleans last year
6. Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR63)
Though he finds himself buried down my preseason rankings at the moment, Wheaton may have a better opportunity than most realize this year. To start, Pittsburgh’s offense should fire at juggernaut pace again in 2015 – after all, while they upgraded the defense, they’re probably a year or two away from being able to truly limit opposing offenses, leaving Pittsburgh in a position for many shootouts. With all those pass attempts in mind (Big Ben has set career highs in pass attempts in back-to-back years, settling on 608 last season).
At least in the early part of the season, he’s set to continue to out-snap Martavis Bryant (760-302 in favor of Wheaton last year), who had elbow issues this offseason and is just now getting back on the field. Wheaton, evidently, has used that time to make a case for himself with his QB. Take a listen to Roethlisberger calling his third year receiver the team’s “breakout player of the year“, and further referring to him as the base starter in two wide sets (and slot man with Bryant on the field). In great likelihood, those two will alternate usable weeks this year and should continue to cap one another’s upside, but in the later stages of your draft Wheaton could prove to be a bargain – particularly if anyone in this receiving corps is injured.
7. Marquess Wilson, Chicago Bears (WR64)
With the injury news coming out of Chicago, Wilson’s up and down star is ‘on the up again’. He’s now slated for the third receiver role in Chicago, something that we thought he’d take on a year ago before injury slowed the start to his season.
Of course, things have changed considerably since the dawn of the ’14 campaign. Marc Trestman is out and Adam Gase/John Fox are in. That changing offense, and the fact that he’s played in 16 games with just 19 receptions in his career make the typical third year benefits harder to see for Wilson. Further, while Gase is no stranger to a dynamic passing game, the Bears are expected to attempt fewer passes overall this year. He’ll also have Martellus Bennett and Royal to compete for targets with, and Alshon Jeffery as the unquestioned #1.
8. Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams (WR71)
A threat to run away on any play, can Tavon Austin and his new QB put it all together this year? (Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America).
2014 was not pretty in terms of production from Austin, who posted a meager 7.5 YPR number and managed just 32 receptions for 239 yards through the air. Still, he put up those numbers with below average QB play, something he’s had to deal with in each of his first two seasons in the league. Fast forward to 2015 and he’ll be working with Nick Foles, who should deliver at a league average clip at least, and its looking like he’ll see more of the field after logging just 552 offensive snaps last year.
Austin started the Rams first preseason game, and should mix in as the 2nd or (more likely) 3rd option with Brian Quick and Kenny Britt. St. Louis’ passing game won’t revolutionize itself with Foles at the helm this year, but, it certainly should be a more stable, more lucrative passing game. That’s good news for Austin, who still has game changing speed. Further, he caught 72.7% of his targets last season (admittedly, with a very low aDot and all but five of his targets coming behind the line or 0-9 yards deep), so it isn’t as if he’s just putting catchable balls on the ground all day.
Take the offseason coach speak with a grain of salt, but HC Jeff Fischer sees big things for the former top-10 talent and his new QB, per Don Banks (of SI.com):
I think one of the key things for us as we move forward is Nick and the fact that he’s 6’5″ and can see Tavon and get the ball to him. That was the plan with Sam [Bradford is 6’4″], but it didn’t happen. He didn’t really have Sam throwing him the ball for two years.
This has nothing to do with Tavon. It’s not a reflection on what he’s done. Tavon has done everything he possibly can. He’s in great shape, and he’s highly talented and a passionate teammate. This has been more about the circumstances of our situation. This potentially could be a breakout year for him. Because he’s got the potential to win outside and inside.
So there you have it, pencil him in for 100 targets and 1,000 yards right? Wrong. But, Austin shouldn’t be written off just yet – if his coach is unwilling, then we shouldn’t be.
9. Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings (WR74)
The same goes for Vikings WR and fellow return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson. Similarly, he took a step backward in 2014 after an intriguing debut, and just didn’t really seem to find a niche in Norv Turner’s system. The challenge: while offseason chatter has been positive for him as well, Patterson is still playing with the second team through two preseason games and faces an uphill battle to improve on his 582 offensive snaps from 2014 behind Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright. If injury or other factors allow for increased reps this year, Patterson still has the talent to produce, but his path to targets is less direct than that of Austin (though his QB, arguably, could be better this -year).
10. Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans (WR81)
I’ve backed Dorial Green-Beckham in this position battle already and most of me thinks that Hunter has had his shot to prove he’s ready for the job without taking advantage. That said, the whole concept behind the third year receiver breakout is in personal and professional growth, and aside from an early offseason bar fight the news has been all aces for Hunter. Rotoworld rightly cautions us that he’s always looked good in shorts, but, with his coaching staff noting that he’s trending up; all signs point to a bounceback year; and that he’s been consistent in camp it may be hard to keep him off the field.
When he’s there, he’s no lock to improve on an ugly performance that featured seven drops, and 28 receptions on 67 targets but his career 18.5 YPR number remains enticing if he can put it all together with his rookie QB.
11. Marlon Brown, Baltimore Ravens (WR82)
Brown is a player of interest because of his size (6’5″), and Baltimore’s lack of red zone passing threats. He hasn’t been able to stay on the field this offseason, however, and is battling Kamar Aiken, rookie Breshad Perriman and others for playing time.
If he can’t get on the field, he’s not going to offer much, and even if he does he’s looking like a boom or bust TD candidate – though, you’ll want to recall that he had seven of those in his rookie season.
12. Stedman Bailey, St. Louis Rams (WR83)
Noting above, Bailey had some big games down the stretch last year but appears to be playing behind Austin and the rest of this average receiving corps on the depth chart. When he was on the field and used last year, however, Bailey was productive. In fact, in each of the games that he drew more than five targets last year, Bailey made at least five catches for 74 yards. Keep an eye on his playing time this offseason.
13. Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills (WR90)
Bills has a lot more career production to his credit than a lot of the names buried in the latter half of this list, and would warrant a little more love if the QB situations was just a little more enticing in Buffalo. The challenge this year is that he’ll have Percy Harvin in the mix for reps, alongside sophomore WR and unquestioned target king Sammy Watkins.
Therefore, even if he grows in his third year (and there is room for that, after eight dropped passes last year) there may not be enough targets to justify a fantasy investment. Woods had 98 thrown his direction in a 16 game season last year and with the addition of Harvin and TE Charles Clay, as part of Rex Ryan’s run heavy philosophy (as deployed by OC Greg Roman) there simply doesn’t seem like enough volume heading his way to warrant any interest.
14. Aaron Dobson, New England Patriots (WR105)
This, from my 2015 Patriots’ preview:
The only player who appears to be a legitimate threat to unseat Amendola [as the 3rd receiver] is third year receiver Aaron Dobson.
The 6’3″, 205 lb Dobson had post-draft intrigue written all over him in 2013 and delivered a number of big games down the stretch for New England, only to see injury and ineffectiveness derail his 2014 season. Now, he’s quietly putting together a solid 2015 offseason, including showing up to camp in great shape and gaining ‘positive momentum‘ in the early days of camp – though, in terms of full picture disclosure we should note that he’s also been dealing with a hamstring ailment, in true Dobessian fashion.
There is no case for Dobson at this stage in redraft leagues after he earned just 57 snaps in 2014, but with good health and his great hands, he could earn a role with the offense through the Summer and/or into the season. Dobson had 519 yards in just 11 games during his up and down rookie season, and has the size that the Patriots desperately need in their receiving corps. Even if he leapfrogs Amendola during camp, Dobson we’ll likely cost you nothing on draft day and, like the folks at Rotoviz… I’m just saying there’s a chance.
Fellow third year WR Josh Boyce was a disaster in the team’s preseason opener (even if a lot of the miscues were on QB Jimmy Garropolo) and Dobson may well get an opportunity to earn some time, if he can get healthy enough to get on the field.
Other 3rd year names of interest: Marquise Goodwin, Adam Thielen, Jaron Brown, Brice Butler, Josh Boyce, Quinton Patton, Corey Fuller, Frankie Hammond
And, that’s about it. As you can see from the list, and the reality that just four third year receivers land in my overall top-48 (or WR4s in standard leagues) its hard to get overly excited about this year’s crop of 3rd year receivers. As late round flyers go, though, you could do worse than some of these 24 to 25-year-olds who may finally put it all together and make the jump in 2015.
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